The global financial crisis that shook virtually every country, government, and household in the world in 2008-09 gave way to a frustrating “new normal” of low growth, rising inequality, political dysfunction, and, in some cases, social tensions, so much so that the path of the global economy is likely to end soon, and potentially quite suddenly. As we approach this historic inflection point, unthinkables will become more common and insecurities will rise, especially as it becomes clearer that, rather than transition smoothly and automatically, the current path could give way to one of two very different new roads.
"A guide on what to expect as the world struggles to cope with slower, less equal growth and the resulting populism, nationalism and ugly partisan politics that we see in countries from the U.S. to France to China." – Time Business
"The first striking message in The Only Game in Town will therefore cause some alarm. It is that the new normal is soon to be no more." – Financial Times
"El-Erian frames “The Only Game in Town” around the world’s central banks, on the sensible grounds that with the rest of government focused on austerity." – The New York Times
"How come the global economy is now run largely by unelected central banks? In this highly intelligent analysis, the author, a respected investor and CEO, explains how elected governments are failing in their basic job to take care of the economy and why this might lead to a massive unmanageable crisis.”–Fareed Zakaria, CNN (book of the week)
Finally! A book about economics that won’t put you to sleep. In fact, you won’t be able to put this bestseller down. In our challenging economic climate, this perennial favorite of students and general readers is more than a good read, it’s a necessary investment—with a blessedly sure rate of return.
In 2007, when the world was staring into the teeth of the biggest economic catastrophe in three generations, very few economists had any idea there was any trouble lurking on the horizon. Three years into the mess, economists now offer remedies that strike most people as frankly ridiculous. We are told
Incentives are the cornerstone of modern life. And understanding them or ferreting them out is the key to solving just about any riddle. It isn't just the boldface names inside-trading CEOs and pill-popping ballplayers and perk-abusing politicians¾who cheat. It is the waitress who pockets her tips instead of pooling them. It
The idea of collaboration has always been used within the framework of board rooms, conferences, video conferencing and the likes. Yet now, the traditional scope of collaboration is moving into mass collaboration, in where millions and millions of individuals are able to play a role in the economy like never before.
If you are like most people, for the last 35 years you’ve been investing the Wall Street way. The Wall Street way tells that the proper way to invest is to own a selection of stocks and bonds, and no matter what happens, stay the course. They tell us not to
Being the only game in town, central banks found themselves pushed ever deeper in experimental policy terrain, and they have stayed there much longer than anyone anticipated or may have hoped for initially. Policy making often entails difficult trade-offs.
There is a lot we can and should do to help improve the prospects for good outcomes, in the process also increasing our ability to better navigate bad outcomes should the world come out of the T on the wrong road.
Lots of researchers have provided us with tools that may be used to enhance diversity and to reduce errors in judgment and decision making that come from blind spots and unconscious biases.
“Like ancient doctors, who tried to explain the causes of diseases while knowing nothing about germs or bacteria, academics sought to describe the functioning of developed economies while ignoring the financial sector and the risks it contained.” Ferdinando Giugliano
Part of the golden phenomenon was warranted by the central banks’ multi-decade conquering of inflation.
The Economist put it well in May 2014, when it stated that “low interest rates and low volatility have a bigger impact on asset prices than on real investment, and risk creating financial bubbles, long before economies reach full employment.”
The Wall Street Journal article looking at the “Investor’s Dilemma” and noting that “investing these days is like shopping at Neiman Marcus: Almost everything is expensive.”
The divergence between the Fed and the ECB is the one that will matter most—and its impact and reach will assume greater importance as the extent of divergence gradually increases (which it will). The course of economies and policies elsewhere will be altered.
Recognize that gender diversity, like other forms of diversity, is a fundamental input to cognitive diversity that is critical for navigating a fluid and increasingly complex global economy.