4 Steps to the Future

A Quick and Clean Guide to Creating Foresight

by Richard A. K. Lum

Number of pages: 88

Publisher: Vision Foresight Strategy LLC

BBB Library: Corporate Success, Technology and Globalization

ISBN: 978-0997278309

About the Author

Richard Lum is an academically trained futurist and chief executive of Vision Foresight Strategy LLC, a foresight and strategic analysis firm based in Honolulu. His contributions were featured in the book Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (2006), and he is the co-creator of the Verge General Practice Framework for foresight work, a framework used by foresight practitioners throughout the UK, in Europe, Africa, and Asia for horizon scanning, scenario development, and visioning work. He is an advisory council member of the Hawai'i Future Caucus of the Hawai'i State Legislature and is an adjunct faculty member of the University of Houston. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the futures studies program at the University of Hawai'i.

Editorial Review

Everyone has a natural instinct to be concerned about the future and virtually everyone at various points and in various ways tries to wrestle with the question, “What will the future bring?” Living in a world of apparently rapid change, we are more concerned than ever with the future. So, let’s think of foresight simply as insight into how and why the future will be different from today. It is not about the ability to see the future before it happens.

Book Reviews

Intended for managers and executives in need of easy-to-apply tools that can be used immediately within organizations,4 Steps to the Futureis written as a guidebook. Readers who are looking for a resource that provides them the guidance and tools to conduct a foresight project themselves, or who have to lead an upcoming foresight effort, will find this book an indispensable guide.

"This is an outstanding "how-to" book for anyone wanting to get started in the art and science of futures and forecasting. Dr. Lum struck the perfect balance of description, instruction, practicality and humor in this easy to read volume. If you are simply interested in learning more about the field of futures or are preparing to host your own workshop, this is the place to start."-Stephen D. Kiser, PhD, Senior Innovator for US Pacific Command, former Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

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Wisdom to Share

· Living in a world of apparently rapid change, we are more concerned than ever with the future.

· The future does not exist (we’re all helping create it).

Let’s think of foresight simply as insight into how and why the future will be different from today. It is not about the ability to see the future before it happens.

Developing a better understanding of the past doesn’t tell us what will happen in the future, but it does give us an appreciation for the patterns that recur, the cycles that might be at work, and the roles that chance and randomness have played in creating our present.

· In terms of improving our thinking about the future, reviewing history helps to remind us of the important changes that have already occurred in our industry or community.

A historical review reminds us that not every expected transformation actually came to pass; some things have remained largely unchanged over history. Reviewing what has changed, what has remained the same and why helps us find the important patterns and relationships that drive or shape change.

· While the present is just a transitory moment between what was and what might be, for our purposes the Present is where we take a look at all of the “signals” about change that we presently think we are receiving.

While there’s potentially a lot of sophistication that can go into future thinking and foresight work, even a few basic questions and process points can go a long way to creating informed and critical discussions within organizations.

Future thinking is just a particular type of critical thinking.

· Vision is “an articulation of the organization’s preferred future, informed by purpose, foresight, and aspiration.”

Commonly referred to as “early indicators,” these are signs your organization would use to anticipate one or more of the scenarios coming to pass.

Scenarios are one of the workhorse tools in futures studies, playing a central role both in anticipating possible change and in generating visions of preferred futures.