Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Number of pages: 352
Publisher: Broadway Books
BBB Library: Psychology and Strengths
ISBN: 978-0804136716
Editorial Review
Philip E. Tetlock and his research and life partner Barbara Mellers launched the Good Judgment Project and invited volunteers to sign up and forecast the future. Big as it was, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) was only part of a much larger research effort sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). IARPA is an agency within the intelligence community that reports to the director of National Intelligence and its job is to support daring research that promises to make American intelligence better at what it does. And a big part of what American intelligence does is forecasting global political and economic trends.
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Wisdom to Share
By one rough estimate, the United States has twenty thousand intelligence analysts assessing everything. This forecasting is critical to national security.
Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, gathering information, and updating beliefs.
System 1 can only do its job of delivering strong conclusions at lightning speed if it never pauses to wonder whether the evidence at hand is flawed or inadequate, or if there is better evidence elsewhere. It must treat the available evidence as reliable and sufficient.
Brier scores measure the distance between what you forecast and what actually happened. So Brier scores are like golf scores: lower is better.
When we make estimates, we tend to start with some number and adjust. The number we start with is called the anchor.
Coming up with an outside view, an inside view, and a synthesis of the two isn’t the end. It’s a good beginning.
There are many different ways to obtain new perspectives. What do other forecasters think? What outside and inside views have they come up with? What are experts saying?
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