Philip E. Tetlock and his research and life partner Barbara Mellers launched the Good Judgment Project and invited volunteers to sign up and forecast the future. Big as it was, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) was only part of a much larger research effort sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). IARPA is an agency within the intelligence community that reports to the director of National Intelligence and its job is to support daring research that promises to make American intelligence better at what it does. And a big part of what American intelligence does is forecasting global political and economic trends.
"The prescriptions in “Superforecasting” should offer us all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to the confusing world around us." — The New York Times
"I think that this is a fantastic book. It contains many more insights, touching on topics such as how to combine and manage teams of forecasters, and comes highly recommended." — Bond Vigilantes
"Even if the hoped-for revolution never arrives, the techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone."— The Economist
Whenever someone makes a decision and tries to be reasonable and restrained, the brain is awash in feelings, driven by its inexplicable passions. These emotions secretly influence our judgment. Naturally, these feelings sometimes can lead us astray and cause us to make all sorts of predictable mistakes. To make good decisions, God
Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives-and
We look back at the time when the world began a historic transition from industrial capitalism to a new kind of economy based on new principles and new ways of thinking and behaving. And while there are certainly many similarities between what is happening today and what happened over five hundred
Most people living normal lives are unaware of what’s coming – how extreme changes and trends may disrupt every aspect of our world and lives. Most people are not prepared for the drastic changes on the horizon that will change work, business, health, or population. They have not run the scenarios,
By one rough estimate, the United States has twenty thousand intelligence analysts assessing everything. This forecasting is critical to national security.
Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, gathering information, and updating beliefs.
System 1 can only do its job of delivering strong conclusions at lightning speed if it never pauses to wonder whether the evidence at hand is flawed or inadequate, or if there is better evidence elsewhere. It must treat the available evidence as reliable and sufficient.
Brier scores measure the distance between what you forecast and what actually happened. So Brier scores are like golf scores: lower is better.
When we make estimates, we tend to start with some number and adjust. The number we start with is called the anchor.
Coming up with an outside view, an inside view, and a synthesis of the two isn’t the end. It’s a good beginning.
There are many different ways to obtain new perspectives. What do other forecasters think? What outside and inside views have they come up with? What are experts saying?