Day in and day out, millions of us take action based on what we think the future will hold. Investors buy shares when they think a company's future is bright and sell shares when they think a company's future is dim. Analysts try to understand what the future holds so they can dispense insightful nuggets of wisdom to their clients. High-level executives try to separate signal from noise and threats from opportunities, and act accordingly. All of these people observe actions taken by managers and try to determine the impact those actions will have on the future. Typically, the biggest questions on their minds are: How will this innovation change an industry, and what impact does this have on the firms I care about?
"What’s Next is written for those who watch industries from the [in italics] outside, and who must make important decisions based on what they see. It will help executives, analysts, investors, and others who have a stake in a specific industry to evaluate the impact of innovations, the outcomes of competitive battles, and the moves made by individual firms — and to make smarter business decisions, forecasts, and stock recommendations based on those evaluations. The goal here [in Seeing What’s Next] is to dramatically increase the odds of getting things right in the arena where wrong decisions could be devastating.”" - Bob Morris
"Seeing What's Next offers a practical, three-part model that helps decision-makers spot the signals of industry change, determine the outcome of competitive battles, and assess whether a firm's actions will ensure or threaten future success. Through in-depth case studies of industries from aviation to health care, the authors illustrate the predictive power of innovation theory in action." - Harvard Business Review Press
"The authors show how to understand what attackers can do to tilt the balance of power in their favor and what incumbents can do to withstand attacks" - Questia
The modern world is the product of ideas, beliefs, and values of human imagination and culture have shaped it over centuries. It has been created out of our minds as much as from the natural environment. The human mind is profoundly and uniquely creative, but too many people have no sense
Red Thread Thinking teaches you to activate your own knowledge and resources to make better connections, have more and superior insights, and apply history as a valuable source for future-leaning innovation--without the need for high-cost development.
Organizations are succeeding by being open to innovation. Amazon went from being an online bookseller to a powerhouse when it started offering a wide variety of web-based services. Google and Apple have added a host of online services to their core competencies. And Toyota has enjoyed a decade-spanning, market-dominating run owing
A trigger is any stimulus that reshapes our thoughts and actions. In every waking hour we’re being triggered by people, events, and circumstances that have the potential to change us. They can be major moments. They can be pleasant, like a teacher’s praise that elevates our discipline and ambition and turns
Sustaining innovations are what moves companies along established improvement trajectories. They are improvements to existing products on dimensions historically valued by customers.
Disruptive innovations introduce a new value proposition. They either create new markets or reshape existing markets.
Historically, people perceived the process of innovation to be random. This seemingly random process actually follows distinct patterns that lead to predictable outcomes.
When a low-cost competitor attacks a given tier of a market, it only enjoys a cost advantage as long as high-cost competitors remain in the market.
Firms eventually face competition. Predicting who will win these battles requires evaluating combatants' strengths and weaknesses.
When companies have the same capabilities and motivation, they care about the battle and have the necessary skills to fight it.
Asymmetries of motivation occur when one firm wants to do something that another firm specifically does not want to do.
Asymmetries allow disruptive attackers to enter a market, grow without incumbent interference, and mitigate the incumbent's response when it is finally motivated to counterattack.
Disruption is the fundamental mechanism that makes products and services inexpensive, convenient, and simple to use.
Customers don’t simply buy products or services; they hire them to do a job. Understanding customers does not drive innovation success. Understanding customer jobs does. If you build your foundation on the pursuit of understanding your customers’ jobs, your strategy will no longer need to rely on luck. In fact, you’ll